Necessary, yes. Things will develop and roll out all spring…you know links and design and stuff, but go (back) here from now until then.
There are reviews and previews everywhere, so please don’t come here looking for that.My suggestion is BBState and its Tournament Wiz. You will lose yourself for a great deal of time in that thing.
Granted, we’ll talk VCU/UCLA, probably tomorrow, but you’re not getting Darren Collison’s efficiency rating or a lame Ben Howland quote. Re-read yesterday’s missive–while it may be next week before we convert back to what we once were, we’re about more than that over here.
As a goodwill gesture to one goal of adding to your viewing pleasure, here’s some guidance on how to smell an upset in the making…
It all began two weeks ago and two months ago, not Sunday. It’s a team having that look: playing with confidence, chock full of multiple weapons (preferably inside and outside), and having the ability to play at a different pace. An odd offensive attack (Princeton) helps, too.
As far back as 1986, when #14 Cleveland State knocked off Indiana, the Vikings were 27-3 and riding a crest of momentum. They featured four double figure scorers and an experienced team. They weren’t about to be intimidated.
You also have to have “that guy,” the guy you can lean on in tough situations. The CAA is inundated with Eric Maynor stories this week, and rightfully so. Two seasons ago Maynor dumped Duke. In 1993, #15 Santa Clara was led by some guy named Steve Nash in its upset of Arizona.
At some point in its first round game, an upset-minded team is going to need all of that.
Pick from that list, and enjoy the game, which should consist of:
The Good Start
George Mason rallying from a 16-2 hole against North Carolina in 2006 notwithsanding, it is imperitive for the mid major to get off to a good start. Tennessee-Chatanooga’s 20-2 run to open against Georgia in 1997 qualifies. You don’t want to hit that under 16 media timeout trailing by eight.
Absorb the Blow
The favored team is going to hit the mid major with a 10-2 run. The key is turning the 10-2 run into an 18-12 run, not an 18-5 run. The cliche is winning with seniors, and this is the part of the game you need them to stay calm.
Finish the Half, Start the Half
Coaches always talk about the last four minutes of the first half and first four minutes of the second half being the game’s most important time periods. They are right. Holding a lead, keeping a manageable deficit, and momentum are all significant outputs from this time frame. In its 1987 victory over Illinois–the Dick Vitale standing on his head game–Austin Peay nailed a three-pointer at the halftime buzzer to tie the Illini.
You want the last 16 minutes to matter? Win these eight.
Believe
There are 12 minutes to play and you are up or down three points. This is where that confidence begins to pay its dividends. At this point you have a strong belief that this game is yours to win. Importantly, so does every fan not rooting for your opponent. You can turn this game into a road game for the higher seed.
Most importantly, if you opponent believes you can win, they get tight because confidence is a deadly two-way street: you have it, and your opponent sees you have it.
The Big Stop
It’s so much more comforting to have the ball down three as opposed to five–or have the ball up three with a chance to lead by five. Upsets occur when you lock down on defense for one or two possessions at a critical stage. Nothing builds momentum like forcing a turnover with two minutes to play.
Let’s combine two aspects: the #3 seed has just gone on a 10-2 run to close the mid major’s gap to three with two minutes to play. How big is forcing a turnover to the emotional state of the mid major in approaching the final two minutes?
Catch A Break
Let’s be clear: sometimes, it takes a little luck. Obviosuly Bryce Drew’s buzzer-beater over Ole Miss is the big shot of all big shots. But many forget that Mississippi missed a pair of free throws with less than five seconds to play to allow for Drew’s heroics. Make one, and we all miss a glorious tournament memory.
There are key possessions late in games, and every now and then luck rewards you.
The Big Shot
At one or two or three key moments in the second half–that guy hits that shot. We can all point to Drew or Maynor or any other last-second winner, but there are possessions in every upset when the hero earns that mantle.
Stewie Hare’s door slammer to put down USC comes immediately to mind, but it isn’t the best example. Think Lamar Butler’s four-point play or Folarin Campbell’s fadeaway swish against Connecticut. BA Walker’s three or Jesse Pellot Rosa’s elbow jumper against Duke. It’s the shot(s) that make you grip and exhale. You know what I mean.
The Other Guy and That Guy
An upset is made when the six-point, three-rebound post player manages 15 points on six-of-eight shooting, with 12 rebounds. It is in perfect alignment with that guy, like Harold Arceneaux, who 36 points sank North Carolina in 1999.
(And I Feel Fine…)
Tom Pecora once told me that the power conferences are making policy, and he was okay with that. This was more than three years ago, and it took until Monday morning to resonate fully with me, and hopefully now with you.
There’s no point railing on the selection committee, nor comparing “resumes” and the like. That is an exercise akin to pointing at the sun on a sweltering August day. Think Murray in Meatballs: It just doesn’t matter.
Fill out your brackets and enjoy the tournament, just like you always did. Cheer Siena and Northern Iowa and Western Kentucky, and of course VCU. There’s no need to alter your course.
The selection process was exposed on Sunday, we all know it. No makeup of men or statistical analysis can ever alter the topline. Nor the bottom line. You may feel better sniping off a letter to Mike Slive. It may be your most carefully-worded and professional missive possible. It’s utterly useless, and that’s fine, too. It bears repeating: Enjoy the tournament.
Prior to the selections, I said to everyone who would listen–and to some who would not–that this was the ultimate policy year for the committee. I was careful to use those two specific words together because you could see it coming from a mile away. There was enough bubble malleability and enough sameness to get a true understanding of the NCAA tournament worldview despite the mid-numbing rhetoric thrown around by the various “ologists.”
Resumes and bodies of work and RPI and SOS and top 50 wins aren’t the point. We all see now.
(Side note: loved Lunardi taking ESPN to task on Sunday afternoon: “frankly we’ve talked more about Memphis in this segment than the committee will all weekend.”)
The two things I see, as it relates to the CAA:
1. Punt Bracketbusters. It is useless and distracting for what we are trying to accomplish. In fact, get LeCrone on the horn to join us. What big loss is an 11am ESPN2 or 9pm ESPNU game, really? I’d trade that–and the return game–for two nonconference games, such as:
2. If you are a CAA coach entertaining an at large berth, you’d better acquiesce an ego point. Take your check and go play in Cameron Indoor or the Carrierdome. It’s nice to say you are big enough and good enough to the point of NOT having to buy games; in reality, you MUST accept a buy game for reasons and goals having nothing to with your status in the world.
I’ve made my peace with it, and you should, too. There are others who have the energy, desire, and platform to take this on. These folks, guys like Gregg Doyel, will have an ally here.
For the past four years, and the 15 or so basketball seasons prior to that, I’ve been pointing at the sun. No more. I’ve strung together far too many conversations that get me to the point of this diatribe.
We need to be celebrating what we have, not railing against that in which we don’t have. It’s what we do here and what we should do here. It’s what we did way-back-when.
Issues arise when there is an imbalance to your dosha; you intellectually mask the imbalance as “growth” or “necessary change.” Our dosha is discussing that which makes mid major basketball great and joyous.
In Anthony Grant speak, you play to your identity. In dad-to-daughter speak: be yourself. In Jeff Jarvis speak: do what you do best, and link to the rest.
So we’re taking a mulligan, a Bobby Ewing dream sequence, a flux capacitor-induced trek to when we were very good in this space, and we will strive to redo the future.
That means a return of CAA: LAMM and a return to celebrating mid major basketball, not using it as a platform. It isn’t about the man keeping us down. It’s about success in the face of reality. It’s underdogism (or underdogma) but without the crutch, because the crutch is anti-underdog.
That was the whole point, really, in the entire book. A light needed to be shined on the plight and struggle of mid major programs; to give them their rightful due so they could celebrate success, too. Nobody ever told that story in detail.
In many ways, the George Mason Final Four run loused up my book. At some point between Tony Skinn punching Loren Stokes and Roy Williams punching that chair we got off path. Oh, it was a wonderful path and I wouldn’t trade it for anything. I’ve made friends I hope to never lose and will have many fond memories of those three weeks.
But it’s high time I wrote that book, the one I really wanted to write in the first place.
And since the publishing industry is currently swirling in its own toilet bowl, we’ll do it right here, with song titles as our blog titles.
If you were ever unclear about the world in which we overlive our passion, the college basketball world, things should be crystal clear now.
You know the numbers and you watched the show. We’re not getting into all that, because it is about so much more than numbers, even though it is precisely about numbers.
But for those who care, Gary Parrish over at CBS Sports has the best I’ve read. His money graf:
What you need to know is that no BCS-affiliated school with a top 50 RPI was omitted this season, but six non-BCS-affiliated schools with top 50 RPIs were — specifically San Diego State (34), Creighton (40), UAB (46), Illinois State (47), Saint Mary’s (48) and Niagara (49). What that means is that for the fifth consecutive season, the three best RPIs omitted from the field belonged to non-BCS affiliated schools, which means a good RPI can save you if you’re from a power conference, but it won’t do much to help you if you’re not.
The aspect that cracks me up the most is this: at the same time we’re supposedly getting unprecedented transparency into the workings of the Selection Committee–you know, the whole mock selection process that is more mockery than mock–we’re offered undeniable proof that these projects are red herrings and nothing else.
You go pay attention to Bracketbusters and this Mock Process, and meanwhile we’ll NOT discuss the inequities of the evaluation. What you don’t see many times provides a clarity of vision that cannot be duplicated.
Three weeks ago I called for the end of Bracketbusters because it was a sham. Explain to me how it was helpful to Creighton? St. Mary’s? Butler and its seed?
If you are ever fooled again, shame on you.
***
You want funny? I think I may pick Arizona into the Sweet 16.
***
Much more coming tomorrow. To be honest, I couldn’t bear to watch a bit of analysis last night. I knew what I needed to know, and I didn’t need anyone to shape my opinion.
My opinion is still clarifying itself in the meat grinder that is my mind. But there is much there.
Regardless of George Mason, this is a policy year like none other for the Selection Committee. The perceived “weak bubble,” whatever that may be, has given rise to the greatest number of discussions in my memory of what “deserve” means in terms of an at large berth.
We’ve never seen a greater collection of 18-12 major conference teams put head-to-head against 24-7 mid major teams. And, they are battling each other.
San Diego State, Creighton, St. Mary’s, New Mexico, Mason, etc. Or, Maryland, Arizona, Auburn, Florida, Pick a Big Ten Team, etc.
Keep an eye on the number SIX. Though I don’t necessarily buy it, that is what many say is the official mid major at large quota.
The other thing to keep an eye on: the rationale for “in” and “out.” My beef has always been the committee picks and chooses its criteria for inclusion or exclusion, doling what I believe to be excuses, not explanations.
The main question that I’ve never really heard asked, nor answered: which is better, 2-4 against the top 50, or 5-12? I cringe when a Maryland or Arizona is included because of five top 50 wins.
And if we end up at six mid major at large bids? I’ll not likely buy the word “coincidence.”
Side note: if Davidson makes the field, the selection process if officially a sham.
Though I stopped my life for the CAA Tournament, life did not stop for me. It’s been a sunup to sundown (and then some) week. This quick back-up-on-the-bike note, and we’ll likely hit you on Monday with all of the postseason news and notes needed.
Congratulations to Anthony Grant and the VCU Rams for a fairly harsh whipping of Mason in the CAA finals. Grant is now 7-1 in the CAA tourney in his three seasons.
Signs point to a #11 or #12 seed, a customary slot for the CAA champs.
Here’s the salvo to returning to the “he’s nuts” posts you can find spread throughout this here blog: Don’t be shocked to find George Mason’s name called on Sunday evening as an at large entry.
Now, let me be clear with two things:
1. I do not think, on any planet, that Mason will get an at large bid. It isn’t going to happen. My point–and see number 2 below–is that I will be the least surprised person in the country if they do indeed get the bid.
2. Geroge Mason’s RPI is 46, a sneaky-good number. On eyeballs alone, I count 12 teams behind them that are still being discussed as bubble teams. Mason is not being discussed.
I’ll leave direct comparisons to you, but I’ve had many beers with many people since 2006. I was very close to Air Force, Utah State, and then Stanford in 2007. My point here: stranger (and worse) things have been done by the Selection Committee than putting an RPI 46 mid major in its tournament.
The 2009 CAA tournament is imminent. Everything I have to say will occur here.
For those a little challenged we’re temporarily moving to:
Copy it, paste it, bookmark it, love it.
Our coverage begins with, of course, the matchups and a link to a WRHU preview show tonight. Tomorrow, we’ll be at shootarounds getting as much as we can prior to the coaches tossing us out. Perhaps an interview or two. I’ll also preview the games.
Stay tuned, but stay tuned over there.
And so it begins…
I was over at the CAA offices today:
1. Those folks are very, very busy. They are rolling.
2. During Sunday/Monday snowstorm, a tree uprooted and fell in the parking lot, covering the JMU parking space. (Every school has an assigned space in their lot.) I’m not saying, I’m just saying…
I told you–useless I am right now.
We’re going a long way today, because this is the final post here until The Crossover, which will get us over to that other site for full CAA tournament coverage. That is, unless something utterly useless strikes my brain later today. In that case, this is the second-to-last post here.
Anyway, I owe you some tournament stuff–defined as predictions and whatnot–so here we go:
Team Most Likely to Win Friday, Unexpected: The College. Tony Shaver quietly has his team on an upswing, and they are also difficult style to play in a tournament setting. You have to be patient, and with what is on the line, kids get impatient. Plus, the JMU tank is nearly empty.
Somewhat related side note: They are after a mascot down in Williamsburg, and my contribution is the Seminoles. How funny would that be, in the spirit of spitting in the eye of the NCAA?
Barney Fife Team, #8 or Lower Division: Delaware has the best opportunity to fire one shot and take down VCU on Saturday. The Hens are skilled, and if they are shooting well they can beat anyone. Remember, Delaware beat VCU in Newark and led for about 32 minutes in Richmond.
You Ruin Everything!: Hofstra. I believe the Pride will roll past The Dub on Friday, and the matchup with ODU is going to be an epic brawl. The Pride matches up very well with ODU from a size and athleticism standpoint–probably better than anyone in the conference. Plus, Hofstra has the best end-game player not named Maynor in the conference.
ODU is playing better than anybody, and its fans are rightly stoked, but Hofstra has the best chance to throw melted snow on the Narchs. It would also deny the CAA the atmosphere of a potential VCU/ODU semifinal–off the hook fun.
The Marriott Bartenders Just Got Rich: I’m thinking by Friday at 9:45, the bars in downtown Richmond will be flooded with CAA fans. Drexel will probably lambaste Towson, and many will head out at halftime to chat about the day.
Be Very Careful With Karma: Blaine Taylor said two weeks ago that he wasn’t sure if he really wanted the #4 seed. Even though you get a bye, your draw isn’t exactly (ice cream and) cake. Welcome, Blaine.
Hands Across America: Devon Moore and Ryan Pearson are two key players with hand injuries. I also noticed a bunch of taped thumbs this weekend. And there’s Gerald Lee’s hand, which he will use to pull up the sock on his injured foot.
Key Over/Unders: VCU fans (3,000); Jenkins FG percentage (40); Drexel FG percentage (45); George Mason “that guy” (2.5); Dre Smith threes (12); Matt Janning PPG (18.0); Manny Adako PPG (12.0); ODU games played (2); Any team points scored, any game (61); lower seeds winning Saturday (1.5); victories by seeds 5, 6, 7 (5).
Cheer, At least for One Second, Regardless of Your Affiliation: Juwann James, Eric Maynor, the National Anthem, The Legends announced at halftime, Bill Coen, Lennie Mendez, Jonathan Adams, Tim Crossin, Bruiser, Baptiste Bataille, Doc Nix.
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HOW I SEE IT GOING
Delaware beats Georgia State pretty easily. The Hens are rallying, and the Panthers team I saw Saturday is ready for the season to end.
Hofstra rolls past UNCW. That whole difficulty of beating a team three times in the same season is one of media’s biggest crockeries to gain momentum I’ve ever read.
The Tribe upsets JMU. This is a two-teams-going-different-directions matchup for me. So we’re clear, what MNFC and JYD have accomplished this year is very laudable and should make folks at JMU very happy. But the ride ends here, and Shaver gets to smile.
Drexel dismantles Towson. Nuf ced.
SATURDAY
VCU slips by Delaware in a game that closely resembles the teams’ matchup in Richmond two weeks ago. The Hens lead for awhile, the crowd gets behind Monte, but Maynor takes over late.
ODU and Hofstra play the game everybody talks about for days–controversy, overtime, big plays, bad plays, a technical foul, bad officiating, sweating, huddles by coroporate types, etc. Have I set the stage for enough drama yet? This is a coin flip game but I’ve got to go with ODU only because I’m on the hook to call it. This is the tournament game version of Brady vs. Bruiser for COY.
George Mason puts down The Seminoles in a way that makes people in the stands talk about the great UNCW teams from five to eight years ago. It is a precise dismantling.
Nor’easter one-points Drexel 49-48 in what is surely a record-breaking game. It would mean the Dragons lost its final FOUR conference games by one point. (OK, the Towson game notwithstanding, but you get my point.)
SUNDAY
VCU gets by ODU in yet another classic played by the two teams.
Mason and Nor’easter will end one of two ways: Mason wins comfortably, because I believe the Patriots are the most complete team in the league. But if it is close, Nor’easter pulls it out.
So who wins from here?
Here’s what’s going to happen at some point in the next few days:
You are going to check in to read the latest of my brilliant analysis and humor information about the 2009 CAA Tournament, and you will find nothing more than a link. Perhaps there will be an automatic redirect, but I doubt it.
You will be asked to crossover to a different, CAA-branded site for all the RTU tourney coverage you can handle. So what, you ask?
Here’s what: Weeks ago, I asked the CAA pooh-bahs, and was granted, “backstage” access to this year’s Grindapalooza. I will be provided a camera, a guy to help with the camera, and the access and technological know-how needed to provide you extreme in-depth coverage.
I’m going to be everywhere I can get, beginning Thursday and going straight through the championship. You will see all of it here (well, there).
We’re not doing this on a whim–there were actual meetings, pieces of paper with real live plans on them, and discussion about how we wanted this to go. I wanted to do this last year, but planning was sparse because of the leg injury and there was that annoying cast to my upper thigh.
But we’re getting it done this year.
What is “backstage?”
I’ll get access to assistant coaches for interviews pre and post game (and even halftime, if I can walk quickly enough), perhaps a head coach or three (depends upon their mood).
I get to roam the back halls of the Richmond Coliseum–do you SEE the things I am willing to do for you–to get huddles, plans, etc. I get to get on a bus or two; I get to get into the walkthroughs.
Fans will be involved. Some of you are coming a long way and you deserve at least a mention, if not more. I’ve always believed that you are the heart and soul of this operation. Don’t go the other way when I show up to talk to you, and please let me in your official school gatherings.
There will be the trackable interviews: pro scouts, teevee types, or the random CAA VIP.
I’m planning on playing around with a photo-share site so that we can instantly upload game photos. It will be part of a pseudo-live blogging strategy for those unable to make the tournament but as just as passionate.
Side note: The difference: “Egerson scores to make it 6-6″ won’t be in there. “Egerson swatted a shot into the eighth row and broke the nose of Virginia governor Tim Kaine” would make it, along with a photo.
And of course, the same insightful analysis and the predictions you’ve come to depend on for accuracy will be there, too.
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That’s a pile of information, so I’ll quit writing now–especially because my eyes are full of tears after typing the words accuracy, my, and predictions in the same sentence–and say this: keep coming back and follow directions. The rest you will enjoy.
